Decline of the polisario front: An Analysis by Hach Ahmed Baricalla

Hach Ahmed Baricalla, leader of the Sahrawi Movement for Peace (MSP), recently voiced his concerns about the future of the polisario front, which he describes as a movement in decline. In an interview granted to Jeune Afrique on November 28, 2024, he explained that the withdrawal of recognition of the so-called “rasd” by several countries, most recently Panama, marks a decisive turning point in the Moroccan Sahara conflict. This loss of diplomatic support significantly weakens the independence cause.

Morocco, for its part, considers the Sahara territory as an integral part of its own. Its autonomy proposal under Moroccan sovereignty, launched in 2007, now enjoys the support of over 100 countries, including major powers like the United States and France. This initiative is seen as a credible and realistic solution to the dispute, particularly in light of the polisario’s eroding support.

Baricalla highlights the growing dissatisfaction within the refugee camps managed by the Polisario. According to him, many Sahrawis seek to flee to territories administered by Morocco or European countries. This movement reflects increasing disapproval of the Polisario’s radical rhetoric and rejection of the limited prospects it offers.

The military element is also a key factor in the decline. Baricalla notes that the polisario has lost its offensive capabilities following the withdrawal of its heavy equipment and Morocco’s drone interventions. This situation has driven the polisario to adopt desperate tactics, exacerbating tensions and further diminishing its credibility on the international stage.

Furthermore, Mauritania’s role is highlighted in this context. This neighboring country maintains a cautious neutrality despite tensions between Morocco and Algeria, the polisario’s main backer. Mauritanian authorities work to prevent instability but face similar security challenges to those in the Sahel.

Baricalla also raises the possibility of foreign interference, notably from actors like Iran. He warns of the potential consequences of Iran’s involvement in the conflict, which could turn the region into a hotspot for even greater tensions.

The MSP proposes an alternative path for a political resolution, inspired by models like Iraqi Kurdistan or Spain’s autonomous regions. According to Baricalla, a moderate approach could provide a sustainable solution while respecting the rights of populations in the Tindouf camps and Moroccan sovereignty.

Finally, 2025 is identified as a pivotal year for the future of the Sahara. The international community, through initiatives led by UN envoy Staffan de Mistura, must decide whether the conflict can be resolved through negotiations or will fall into prolonged deadlock. This period could mark a unique opportunity to reshape the dynamics in the region.