Algeria Cornered: Global Support for Morocco’s Sovereignty over Western Sahara Thwarts Algerian Plans

Algerian diplomacy finds itself in a challenging position amid unfavorable geopolitical shifts. The clear backing of Western powers such as the United States, France, and Spain for Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara has deeply unsettled Algeria’s strategy, which had relied on maintaining the status quo in this conflict.

According to an analysis published by the French magazine Atlantico, this Western recognition of Morocco’s claim over the Sahara has forced Algeria into a defensive stance. The country has increased its military presence in the west, notably by building a base in Béchar near the Moroccan border—a strong message sent not only to Rabat but also to other regional actors like Mali.

Meanwhile, relations between Algeria and its Sahel neighbors are deteriorating. The growing influence of the Wagner paramilitary group in Mali, supported by Russia, has sidelined Algeria from managing the security crisis in northern Mali. This exclusion is seen as a significant strategic setback. Diplomatic rifts with Bamako, marked by mutual accusations and the closure of airspace, highlight the severity of the crisis.

In this tense context, Russia’s position causes serious concern in Algiers. Despite a strategic partnership signed in 2023, Moscow now appears to take a pragmatic approach, developing trade relations with Morocco while maintaining neutrality on the Saharan dispute. This stance is perceived in Algeria as a tacit abandonment of their historic alliance.

The situation in Libya adds further instability. The rise of Marshal Khalifa Haftar, viewed as a threat by Algiers, and the ongoing political fragmentation in Tripoli reinforce the sense of geopolitical encirclement. Additionally, political developments in Tunisia, where power has consolidated under an authoritarian president, contrast sharply with Algeria’s traditionally supported model.

Facing these upheavals, Algeria is trying to recalibrate its alliances. Several key diplomatic posts, including in Ankara, Damascus, and Moscow, have seen personnel changes. A high-level delegation visited Russia in April 2025 to seek support against Mali’s growing influence and the Wagner group in the Sahel.

Despite military efforts to maintain regional influence, Algeria remains on the defensive amid shifting alliances. Russia’s rapprochement with the G5 Sahel countries—Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger—exacerbates Algeria’s isolation and questions its ability to shape Africa’s future.